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| Financial crises Lessons from history | | 
By Steve Schifferes
Economics reporter, BBC News
The current market jitters are centred on disturbances in the world's credit markets. Worries about the viability of sub-prime mortgage lending have spread around the financial system, and the central banks have been forced to pump in billions of dollars to oil the wheels of lending.
But what happened in previous financial crises, and what are the lessons for today?
There have been a growing number of financial crises in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Among the key lessons of previous major financial crises are:
- Globalisation has increased the frequency and spread of financial crises, but not necessarily their severity
- Early intervention by central banks is more effective in limiting their spread than later moves
- It is difficult to tell at the time whether a financial crisis will have broader economic consequences
- Regulators often cannot keep up with the pace of financial innovation that may trigger a crisis.
THE DOT.COM CRASH, 2000
During the late 1990s, stock markets became beguiled by the rise of internet companies such as Amazon and AOL, which seemed to be ushering in a new era for the economy.
When AOL's Steve Case took over Time Warner, the dot.com boom peaked
Their shares soared when they listed on the Nasdaq stock market, despite that fact that few of the firms actually made a profit.
The boom peaked when internet service provider AOL bought traditional media company Time Warner for nearly $200bn in January 2000.
But in March 2000, the bubble burst, and the technology-weighted Nasdaq index fell by 78% by October 2002.
The crash had wider repercussions, with business investment falling and the US economy slowing in the following year, a process exacerbated by the 9/11 attacks, which led to the temporary closure of the financial markets.
But the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, cut interest rates throughout 2001, gradually lowering rates from 6.25% to 1% to stimulate economic growth.
LONG-TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 1998
The collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Market (LTCM) occurred during the final stage of the world financial crisis that began in Asia in 1997 and spread to Russia and Brazil in 1998.
LTCM was a hedge fund set up by Nobel Prize winners Myron Scholes and Robert Merton to trade bonds. The professors believed that in the long run, the interest rates on different government bonds would converge, and the hedge fund traded on the small differences in the rates.
John Meriwether, a Wall Street trader, headed LTCM
But when Russia defaulted on its government bonds in August 1998, investors fled from other government paper to the safe haven of US Treasury bonds, and interest rate differences between bonds increased sharply.
LTCM, which had borrowed a lot of money from other companies, stood to lose billions of dollars - and in order to liquidate its positions it would have to sell Treasury bonds, plunging the US credit markets into turmoil and forcing up interest rates.
So the Fed decided that a rescue was needed. It called together the leading US banks, many of whom had invested in LTCM, and persuaded them to put in $3.65bn to save the firm from imminent collapse.
The Fed itself made an emergency rate cut in October 1998 and markets soon returned to stability. LTCM itself was liquidated in 2000.
THE CRASH OF 1987
US stock markets suffered their largest peacetime one-day fall yet on 19 October 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of shares in leading US companies dropped 22% and European and Japanese markets followed suit.
Program trading on the New York stock market worsened the crisis
The losses were triggered by the widespread belief that insider trading and company takeovers on borrowed money were dominating the markets, while the US economy was entering into an economic slowdown.
There were also worries about the value of the US dollar, which had been declining on international markets.
These fears grew when Germany raised a key interest rate, boosting the value of its currency.
Newly-introduced computerised trading systems exacerbated the stock market declines, as sell orders were executed automatically.
Concerns that major banks might go bust led the Fed and other major central banks to lower interest rates sharply.
"Circuit-breakers" were also introduced to limit program trading and allow the authorities to suspend all trades for short periods.
The crash seemed to have little direct economic effect and stock markets soon recovered. But the lower interest rates, especially in the UK, may have contributed to the housing market bubble of 1988-89 and to the pressures on the pound sterling which led to the devaluation of 1992.
The crash also showed that global stock markets were now closely linked, and changes in economic policy in one country could affect markets around the world. Laws on insider trading were also tightened up in the US and UK.
US SAVINGS AND LOAN SCANDAL, 1985
US Savings and Loans institutions were local banks which made home loans and took deposits from retail investors, similar to building societies in the UK.
Under financial deregulation in the 1980s, they were allowed to engage in more complex, and often unwise, financial transactions, competing with the big commercial banks.
By 1985, many of these institutions were all but bankrupt, and a run began on S&L institutions in Ohio and Maryland.
The US government insured many of the individual deposits in the S&Ls, and therefore had a big financial liability when they collapsed.
It set up the Resolution Trust Company to take over and sell any S&L assets that it could, including repossessed homes, taking over the bankrupt institutions.
The cost of the bail-out eventually totalled about $150bn.
However, the crisis probably strengthened the bigger banks by weeding out their weaker rivals, and laid the groundwork for the wave of mergers and consolidations in the retail banking sector in the 1990s.
THE CRASH OF 1929
The Wall Street crash of 1929, "Black Thursday," was an event that sent the US and indeed the global economy into a tailspin, contributing to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Franklin Roosevelt became US President after the crash
After a huge speculative rise in the late 1920s, based partly on the rise of new industries such as radio broadcasting and carmaking, shares fell by 13% on Thursday, 24 October.
Despite efforts by the stock market authorities to stabilise the market, stocks fell by another 11% the following Tuesday, 29 October.
By the time the market had reached bottom in 1932, 90% had been wiped off the value of shares. It took 25 years before the Dow Jones industrial average recovered to its 1929 level.
The effect on the real economy was severe, as widespread share ownership meant that the losses were felt by many middle-class consumers.
They cut their purchases of big consumer goods such as cars and homes, while businesses postponed investment and closed factories.
By 1932, the US economy had declined by half, and one-third of the workforce was unemployed.
The whole US financial system also went into meltdown, with a shutdown of the entire banking system in March 1933 by the time the new President, Franklin Roosevelt took office and launched the New Deal.
Many economists on both left and right have criticised the response of the authorities as inadequate.
The US central bank actually raised interest rates to protect the value of the dollar and preserve the gold standard, while the US government raised tariffs and ran a budget surplus.
New Deal measures alleviated some of the worst problems of the Depression, but the US economy did not fully recover until World War II, when massive military spending eliminated unemployment and boosted growth.
The New Deal also introduced extensive regulation of financial markets and the banking system through the creation of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the separation of commercial and retail banking through the Glass-Steagall Act.
OVEREND & GUERNEY, 1866; BARINGS, 1890
The failure of a key London bank in 1866 led to a key change in the role of central banks in managing financial crises.
The Bank of England was at the centre of the world financial system
Overend and Guerney was a discount bank which provided money for commercial and retail banks in London, the world's financial centre. When it declared bankruptcy in May 1866, many smaller banks were unable to get funds and went under, even though they were otherwise solvent.
As a result, reformers like Walter Bagehot advocated a new role for the Bank of England as the "lender of last resort" to provide liquidity (cash) to the financial system during crises, in order to prevent a failure of one bank spilling over and affect all the others ("systemic failure").
The new doctrine was implemented in the Barings Crisis in 1890, when losses by a leading UK bank, Barings, made on its investments in Argentina, were covered by the Bank of England to prevent a systemic collapse of UK banking.
Secret negotiations by the Bank and London financiers led to the creation of an £18m rescue fund in November 1890, before the extent of Barings' losses became publicly known.
The bankers also organised a committee to renegotiate the outstanding debts owed by Argentina, but a banking crisis engulfed the country and foreign lending to Argentina dried up for a decade.
| | Posted by sab on Saturday, September 22 @ 00:00:00 MST (313 reads) (comments? | Score: 5)
  | | | | | | Healthy heart, What you can do to reduce your risk of heart disease | | The best diet for a healthy heart is rich in fruit and vegetables, fibre, unrefined carbohydrates such as wholegrain cereals and root vegetables, and low in fatty, sugary foods.
The good news is that, unlike in the past when the emphasis was on avoiding certain foods, nowadays the emphasis is very firmly on choosing foods you can eat to improve the health of your heart and blood vessels.
Fresh fruit and vegetables
Fresh fruit and vegetables are rich sources of antioxidants, nutrients that help to prevent the oxidation of LDL cholesterol, one of the main triggers of atherosclerosis. Upping your intake of antioxidants can significantly decrease build up of plaques in the arteries.
Three important antioxidants are vitamins C, E, and beta carotene - often referred to as the ACE vitamins because beta carotene is converted into vitamin A in the body.
Beta carotene is found in yellow, orange and green fruit and vegetables, such as carrots, apricots, red peppers, sweet potatoes, parsley, spinach, asparagus and kale.
Vitamin C is found in most fruit and vegetables, especially green leafy vegetables, citrus fruits, blackcurrants and kiwi fruit.
Vitamin E is found in nuts, seeds, wheatgerm and broccoli.
Other antioxidants include a group of nutrients called bioflavonoids, found in tea, red wine, apple skins and oranges among many other foods.
Folic acid, a type of B vitamin, along with vitamin B6 and vitamin B12, are also important for a healthy heart. Most people with a raised homocysteine level, which has been linked to heart disease, have been found to have a low intake of these nutrients, which are thought to be necessary to process homocysteine, so that it does not build up in the blood.
Sources of folic acid are green leafy vegetables, offal and fortified cereals. B vitamins are found in fish, egg yolk, whole grain cereals, sprouted seeds, offal, pulses and eggs.
Five a day
To make sure you get your day's supply of fruit and vegetables, aim to eat three fresh fruits either at mealtimes or as snacks, plus a substantial portion of vegetables and/or salad with at least two of your main meals a day.
Eating a healthier diet
* Take it slowly: changes in eating habits are more sustainable if you make them gradually and if they're realistic.
* Read labels: help yourself to make healthier food choices by studying food labels and avoiding those that are high in fat, sugar or salt.
* Eat more fresh foods: processed foods are more likely to be high in fatty and sugary elements, while fresh foods are low in these and high in beneficial vitamins, minerals and other nutrients.
* Learn to substitute: for example, instead of a high-fat croissant for breakfast choose a bagel, instead of garlic bread go for grissini (bread sticks), instead of chips choose a baked potato and so on.
Good fats and bad fats
The fats you consume are important factors in helping promote a healthy heart. You should cut your consumption of 'bad fats'. These are saturated fats, that is, hard fats found mainly in animal products such as red meat, butter and hard or full-fat cheeses; and 'trans-fats' (fats that have been solidified by the process of hydrogenation) found in processed foods such as many margarines, biscuits, cakes and pies.
Both these types of fats can contribute to raised cholesterol levels.
At the same time as cutting 'bad fats,' you should increase your intake of 'good fats.' These are fats that actively protect the arteries against athersclerosis: raising levels of 'good' HDL cholesterol, and having other beneficial effects on the arteries.
Good fats comprise omega-3 fatty acids, found particularly in oily fish such as herring, mackerel, sardines, tuna, salmon and swordfish; and omega-6 fats found in olives, nuts, seeds and seed oils, and many vegetables and grains.
Garlic and onions can also help improve your cholesterol profile. They contain compounds that help lower blood pressure and levels of harmful LDL cholesterol, and they also raise levels of beneficial HDL cholesterol.
Fibre
A high intake of fibre helps lower cholesterol levels. The fibre thought to be the most helpful is 'soluble' fibre, a gluey substance found in lentils, kidney beans and other pulses, apples, pears, strawberries, blackberries and cereals such as rye, barley, rice and oats, whole grain bread and pasta.
Starchy vegetables such as potatoes, peas, squash, corn, yams and sweet potatoes are other good sources.
Salt
Although you need some salt to maintain your body's sodium balance, a high intake is linked to high blood pressure, one of the main risk factors for coronary heart disease.
Try to limit your consumption of processed and snack foods, bacon and salami, and avoid adding extra salt to your food at the table and when cooking. Eating more fruit and vegetables, which contain potassium, helps to balance sodium levels.
Eating for a healthy heart
Use herbs to add interest to vegetables rather than butter or salt. For example, steam green beans with dill, potatoes with mint, courgettes with tarragon.
Sweeten dishes with apple juice or pureed pears, and add spices such as cinnamon to give a hint of sweetness rather than using sugar.
The BBC World Service Online has more information on the risks of a poor diet.
This article was last medically reviewed by Dr Trisha Macnair in January 2007.
First published in June 2001.
| | Posted by sab on Wednesday, July 25 @ 00:00:00 MST (350 reads) (comments? | Score: 5)
| | | | | | I See U 
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| | Posted by sab on Thursday, July 05 @ 00:00:00 MST (866 reads) (comments? | Score: 0)
| | | | | | Weight Loss with Dietary Counseling Fizzles Over Time | | BOSTON, July 2 -- Dietary counseling produces modest weight loss, but the effect disappears within about five years, a meta-analysis showed.
On average, weight loss programs that use group or individual counseling, or both, helped participants drop 6% of their body weight after one year, found Michael L. Dansinger, M.D., of Tufts-New England Medical Center here, and colleagues.
At three years, however, half of the weight lost was regained, and at about 5.5 years participants were back to baseline, they reported in the July 3 issue of Annals of Internal Medicine .
Nonetheless, "even small, relatively short-term weight loss may have an important clinical effect," they wrote.
"As many of the included studies show," they added, "dietary and lifestyle changes resulting in modest weight loss consistently reduce such cardiovascular risk factors as hyperglycemia, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension."
Although weight loss programs with a counseling component have long been known to produce modest, transient effects, the magnitude and persistence of the weight loss across clinical trials was less clear.
So the researchers gathered the relevant studies from a prior systematic review covering 1980 to 1997 and searched the literature for randomized trials published from 1997 through 2006.
The 46 trials included reported original data comparing dietary counseling interventions with control, either usual care or minimal counseling (general verbal or written advice). Participants had to be adults with a body mass index of 25 kg/m 2 or greater at baseline.
Overall, about 6,386 people underwent dietary counseling and 5,467 received usual care or minimal counseling. Mean age ranged from 27 to 68, and mean BMI ranged from 25 to 40 kg/m 2 . Participants were healthy in 12 trials, but had hypertension in another 12 trials, type 2 diabetes in 10, impaired glucose tolerance in five, heart disease in three, dyslipidemia in two, and other conditions in six.
Nearly all of the trials promoted exercise, but interventions varied. Seventeen targeted calorie intake, 25 restricted fat intake, and others individualized dietary recommendations to achieve a specific weight loss goal. Group meetings were used in 18 trials, individual meeting in 13 trials, a combination in 11, and three trials used the Internet.
Dr. Dansinger and colleagues found no studies of low-carb diets that included a control group, so none of were included in their review.
Active intervention ranged from 2.5 to 48 months. Although about two-thirds of the trials were of at least fair quality, 28% were poor quality, the researchers said.
They found the expected pattern of weight loss during the active phase of trials and weight regain during the maintenance phase.
On average during active intervention, BMI dropped by 0.12 units per month during months three to six and 0.04 units per month from months three to 12. Meta-regression suggested an overall loss of 0.08 units per month to one year ( P =0.007).
The net weight loss effect was about two BMI units at one year (6% of baseline weight, or about 11 lbs).
Diet and exercise showed no consistent benefit over diet alone, although the difference significantly favored exercise with diet at 12 months. The rate of weight loss with diet and exercise was 0.23 BMI units per month from months three to 12 averaged across three trials compared with essentially no change in the diet groups alone ( P =0.009).
Studies of people with diabetes showed that dietary counseling intervention was half as effective as in studies of nondiabetics ( P <0.001).
During maintenance, the average weight regain increased with time: 0.01 BMI units per month from months six to 12, 0.02 to 0.03 units per month from 12 to 18 months, and 0.04 units per month from 24 to 30 months.
About half the initial weight loss was regained at three years, Dr. Dansinger and colleagues noted.
Meta-regression suggested, "patients would return to their baseline weights after approximately 5.5 years," they wrote.
Independent predictors of greater weight loss were:
- A lower daily caloric intake target ( P =0.009).
- More frequent support meetings ( P <0.001).
- Absence of diabetes ( P <0.001).
Notably, whether the intervention included exercise was not a significant factor ( P =0.50).
Predictors of slower weight regain were lower calorie targets ( P =0.011) and the absence of diabetes ( P =0.012), but not type of intervention ( P =0.62).
Only a third of the studies reported recommended daily caloric intake, however, and the predictive findings can only be considered hypothesis generating because of the retrospective nature of the meta-analysis and lack of patient-level data.
The study was also limited by differences between interventions studied, "although such heterogeneity may enhance the generalizability of our findings," the investigators wrote.
Long-term trials are needed to confirm the findings, the researchers concluded.
| | Posted by sab on Wednesday, July 04 @ 00:00:00 MST (320 reads) (comments? | Score: 0)
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